Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1754 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 17 points.

Optimism among German investors failed to support the euro. According to the data, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to -10.2 in May from -17.2 in April, exceeding economists' expectations. Although the ZEW indicator remains in negative territory, the improvement signals a shift in sentiment. Investors are likely assessing the possibility of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as a factor that could stabilize energy prices and reduce uncertainty weighing on business activity in Germany. Last week saw some escalation, but the absence of a broader regional conflict may have encouraged more optimistic expectations.

Next, market participants will focus on the release of key US inflation data. Traditionally, inflation reports trigger increased volatility across financial markets. Traders will carefully examine every figure, especially core inflation, attempting to predict the future actions of the US regulator. Any deviation from forecasts — whether higher or lower — could significantly alter market expectations regarding future interest rates, which in turn would affect the dollar's exchange rate.

A speech by Federal Open Market Committee member Austan D. Goolsbee is also scheduled for today. Goolsbee's comments could either confirm existing expectations or introduce additional uncertainty, causing noticeable market fluctuations.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more heavily on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1

Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches the 1.1754 level (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.1775. At 1.1775, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. Expectations for euro growth today are justified only if US data comes in weak.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1740 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1754 and 1.1775 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1

I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1740 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1716, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point reversal move from the level. Pressure on the pair will return today if US data comes in strong.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1754 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1740 and 1.1716 can then be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area for manually locking in profits, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area for manually locking in profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.