Gold continues to trade below the 5100 level. Pressure on precious metals has come from rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, supported by solid U.S. employment data.

Strong labor market statistics have offset the impact of geopolitical tensions, keeping the XAU/USD pair below 5100. Under current conditions, interest in safe-haven assets has shifted in favor of the U.S. dollar.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain high: the conflict has now entered its seventh day. According to media reports, Israel is preparing an operation against Iran's underground missile bases, while the number of attacks on ships in the region has increased. Iran, in turn, has threatened retaliation after a U.S. submarine attacked one of its military vessels, reportedly killing more than 80 sailors.

Against this backdrop, strong U.S. employment data has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve System may reconsider its monetary policy approach. Although demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains, investor attention has shifted toward the U.S. dollar, whose support from economic statistics has proven stronger than geopolitical factors.

According to data from the United States Department of Labor, initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28 totaled 213,000, compared with a forecast of 215,000, confirming the resilience of the labor market. Earlier, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that announced layoffs fell to 48,300 in February, which is 55% lower than January's level.

Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve System released its Beige Book, noting that economic expectations remain positive and that most Federal Reserve districts expect moderate growth in the coming months. Employment conditions, according to the report, have not changed significantly in recent weeks, with stable hiring trends in seven of the twelve districts.

Thomas Barkin emphasized that recent inflation data raises doubts about whether the Fed has fully succeeded in suppressing price pressures. He added that the combination of persistent inflation and a strong labor market could shift the balance of risks toward tighter monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the administration of Donald Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve, as the term of Jerome Powell is set to expire in mid-May.

Investors remain focused on February's non-farm payrolls data. Economists expect 59,000 new jobs to be added, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.3%. According to data from Prime Market Terminal, money markets are currently pricing in only 35 basis points of Federal Reserve easing by the end of the year, reflecting expectations of a less dovish stance from the central bank.

Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, gold is consolidating within the $5000–$5100 per ounce range. Sentiment may still remain somewhat positive as prices are attempting to hold above the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average).

However, the Relative Strength Index is close to neutral, indicating weak bullish momentum. The nearest support remains at $5050. If prices fall below this level, the decline could accelerate toward the psychological level of $5000.

The nearest resistance lies at the 9-day SMA, just before the round level of $5200. A break above this level would give bulls stronger momentum to push prices higher.