Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.3319 coincided with a period when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upside potential. The second test at 1.3319 occurred while the MACD was in the overbought area, allowing the implementation of Scenario No. 2, which called for selling the pound, resulting in a decline of more than 40 pips in the pair.

Statements from Federal Reserve officials about the potential abandonment of further rate cuts this year marked a turning point in financial markets. Such rhetoric immediately triggered a significant strengthening of the US dollar. Investors, who previously expected the continuation of quantitative easing, sharply refocused, seeing the current rate level as a more attractive investment environment. Adding to this is the war between the US and Iran, which makes the question of the pound's decline no longer debatable.

The first half of the day promises to be a key moment for the UK. Analysts and traders will focus on indicators reflecting the state of one of the largest sectors of the economy—the services sector. The UK services sector activity index is a crucial barometer of economic activity, given that this sector contributes significantly to the country's GDP. Its dynamics serve as an indicator not only of employment levels and investments in the supply of goods and services but also directly impact consumer demand. Weak data could quickly apply pressure to the GBP/USD pair.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today if the price reaches around 1.3327 (green line on the chart), aiming for a move to 1.3360 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3360, I plan to exit the market and also sell the pound back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the pound today can only be expected after very good data are released. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3302 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to opposite levels of 1.3327 and 1.3360 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3302 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3268 level, where I plan to exit the short positions and immediately buy back (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers of the pound may reveal themselves at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to drop.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3327 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease to opposite levels of 1.3302 and 1.3268 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.