Analysis EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD currency pair showed restrained growth on Monday. The euro's rise, as a result of the US dollar's decline, could have been much stronger since there were sufficient reasons this time as well. Recall that in 2026, messages from Donald Trump arrive almost daily, indicating only one thing: a weaker dollar. Yet the dollar itself is not eager to fall, and the market is slow to sell it. The flat between 1.1400 and 1.1830 on the daily TF has persisted for seven months, so we still do not observe any trend moves or strong intraday movements. Currencies simply ignore most macro and fundamental information.

Take, for example, yesterday. Donald Trump announced tariffs for the second time this year, but in both cases, the dollar saw virtually no drop. It appears the market is no longer very interested in a trade war. Even if that is true, the price remains flat for seven months. Thus, it seems the market is not very interested right now. We do not consider that the final conclusion — the problem lies only in the flat. On the hourly TF, a downtrend remains, as evidenced by the trendline. Only a break of that line will allow us to expect a rise back toward the 1.1800–1.1830 area.

On the 5-minute TF, two buy signals were formed during the day, but overall volatility again did not exceed 50 pips. Thus, when any signal was worked out, traders could expect a maximum profit of about 20 pips.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated January 13. The illustration above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains bullish. Since Trump took office for a second term, only the dollar has been falling. We cannot say the dollar's decline will continue with 100% probability, but current global developments point toward that scenario. The red and blue lines are diverging, which indicates a strong bullish advantage.

We still do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the euro, but there are enough factors for the US dollar to fall. The global downtrend still persists, but what does it matter now, given that the price moved over the last 17 years? Over the past three years, only the euro has been rising, and that trend continues.

The placement of the indicator's red and blue lines continues to indicate the preservation and strengthening of the bullish tendency. During the last reporting week, the number of longs among the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 14,600, while shorts increased by 15,500. Accordingly, the net position fell by 30,100 contracts over the week.

Analysis EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD continues to form a downtrend, within which it declines almost every day. Several weeks ago, the upper line of the 1.1400–1.1830 sideways channel was tested twice, but the euro was unable to break out of it. Thus, technically, the pair's decline is entirely natural. To expect euro growth and a new attempt to break the 1.1800–1.1830 area, one should wait for a break of the trendline on the hourly chart.

For January 20, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1657–1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1692) and the Kijun-sen (1.1625). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Do not forget to move the stop loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the favorable direction. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Tuesday, the EU will publish secondary ZEW indices. If the market reacts to Trump's new tariffs and aggression toward the EU by only about 40 pips at best, what reaction should we expect to indices of business sentiment? In the US, the weekly ADP employment report will be released, but monthly reports are what matter for the dollar.

Trading recommendations:

On Tuesday, traders can trade from the 1.1657–1.1666 area or from the Kijun-sen line. A rebound from the line or area will allow opening short positions with a target of 1.1604–1.1615. Expecting a stronger move right now is unrealistic. A break above the 1.1657–1.1666 area will make longs relevant with a target at the Senkou Span B line.

Explanations of the illustrations:

• Price support and resistance levels (resistance/support) — thick red lines near which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines — Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour. They are strong lines.
• Extremum levels — thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines — trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts — the size of the net position of each trader category.