If there is growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will start reducing interest rates soon, most likely in the spring of 2024, the situation is somewhat different for the European Central Bank. During her speech on Tuesday, ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted that the central bank would not rush to lower interest rates. On the contrary, there is a high probability of a rate hike due to the progress in inflation. And this pushes the single currency higher.

The GBP/USD pair not only reached the level of 1.2700 but managed to break through it. As a result, we have seen a subsequent technical signal for the pound's recovery relative to the decline from July to September.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering at the level of 76, which is close to the critical overbought level, located around the value of 82.

On the four-hour chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which corresponds to the upward cycle.

Outlook

In case the price settles above the level of 1.2700, the pound can rise towards 1.2800-1.2850. However, we should be prepared for a technical rollback due to the pound sterling's overbought status.

The complex indicator analysis points to an upward cycle in the short-term, medium-term and intraday periods.